{ "measured_at": "2026-09-05T13:04:01.049Z", "model": "claude-fable-5-1", "provider": "anthropic", "modelMetadata": [ { "requested_model": "claude-fable-5-1", "resolved_models": [ "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", "claude-fable-5-1" ], "usage": { "input_tokens": 2, "cache_creation_input_tokens": 3084, "cache_read_input_tokens": 1516, "output_tokens": 1509, "output_tokens_details": { "thinking_tokens": 465 }, "server_tool_use": { "web_search_requests": 0, "web_fetch_requests": 0 }, "service_tier": "standard", "cache_creation": { "ephemeral_1h_input_tokens": 3084, "ephemeral_5m_input_tokens": 0 }, "inference_geo": "not_available", "iterations": [ { "input_tokens": 2, "output_tokens": 1509, "cache_read_input_tokens": 1516, "cache_creation_input_tokens": 3084, "cache_creation": { "ephemeral_5m_input_tokens": 0, "ephemeral_1h_input_tokens": 3084 }, "type": "message" } ], "speed": "standard" }, "estimated_cost_usd": 0.140387, "duration_ms": 17961 }, { "requested_model": "claude-fable-5-1", "resolved_models": [ "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", "claude-fable-5-1" ], "usage": { "input_tokens": 2, "cache_creation_input_tokens": 3070, "cache_read_input_tokens": 1516, "output_tokens": 828, "output_tokens_details": { "thinking_tokens": 251 }, "server_tool_use": { "web_search_requests": 0, "web_fetch_requests": 0 }, "service_tier": "standard", "cache_creation": { "ephemeral_1h_input_tokens": 3070, "ephemeral_5m_input_tokens": 0 }, "inference_geo": "not_available", "iterations": [ { "input_tokens": 2, "output_tokens": 828, "cache_read_input_tokens": 1516, "cache_creation_input_tokens": 3070, "cache_creation": { "ephemeral_5m_input_tokens": 0, "ephemeral_1h_input_tokens": 3070 }, "type": "message" } ], "speed": "standard" }, "estimated_cost_usd": 0.10604599999999999, "duration_ms": 11496 }, { "requested_model": "claude-fable-5-1", "resolved_models": [ "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", "claude-fable-5-1" ], "usage": { "input_tokens": 2, "cache_creation_input_tokens": 3013, "cache_read_input_tokens": 1516, "output_tokens": 935, "output_tokens_details": { "thinking_tokens": 216 }, "server_tool_use": { "web_search_requests": 0, "web_fetch_requests": 0 }, "service_tier": "standard", "cache_creation": { "ephemeral_1h_input_tokens": 3013, "ephemeral_5m_input_tokens": 0 }, "inference_geo": "not_available", "iterations": [ { "input_tokens": 2, "output_tokens": 935, "cache_read_input_tokens": 1516, "cache_creation_input_tokens": 3013, "cache_creation": { "ephemeral_5m_input_tokens": 0, "ephemeral_1h_input_tokens": 3013 }, "type": "message" } ], "speed": "standard" }, "estimated_cost_usd": 0.11022900000000001, "duration_ms": 12137 }, { "requested_model": "claude-fable-5-1", "resolved_models": [ "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001", "claude-fable-5-1" ], "usage": { "input_tokens": 2, "cache_creation_input_tokens": 3021, "cache_read_input_tokens": 1516, "output_tokens": 1129, "output_tokens_details": { "thinking_tokens": 431 }, "server_tool_use": { "web_search_requests": 0, "web_fetch_requests": 0 }, "service_tier": "standard", "cache_creation": { "ephemeral_1h_input_tokens": 3021, "ephemeral_5m_input_tokens": 0 }, "inference_geo": "not_available", "iterations": [ { "input_tokens": 2, "output_tokens": 1129, "cache_read_input_tokens": 1516, "cache_creation_input_tokens": 3021, "cache_creation": { "ephemeral_5m_input_tokens": 0, "ephemeral_1h_input_tokens": 3021 }, "type": "message" } ], "speed": "standard" }, "estimated_cost_usd": 0.12009299999999998, "duration_ms": 15565 } ], "sourceHashes": { "lib/commerce/agent.ts": "abb571a53270ce7207252ca5f3e4e1fa9ae34334a702b4cb4b3c359414c0e91c", "lib/commerce/economics.ts": "a4df49e5e59e17188102361a7158bd53537cfbe779585fc47c86e95b82e04406", "lib/commerce/economics-provenance.ts": "24a0fa4a0df96fc66c1d7d859fdc5143f035d5226764294b1147b35807da687d", "lib/intent/codex-cli.ts": "8e825518c151ac5c60c79a6e50c2c08cb402f25f44077712cde56dd5a48b702a", "scripts/eval-commerce.ts": "d7d70e6c5e072db85e2b1abcc0e4e2e7af0aee5478c78238aedf5c9673676e28", "benchmarks/commerce-v1/claude-adapter.ts": "4dc4eaa419adc92f57551d79f443f928a5b055790e8d950e05e40220bfd02dcf", "benchmarks/commerce-v1/supplier-scenarios.ts": "728abc11c0da4394fab287c947f111042fac36f3c57c3fc9b567cf5e3c7227fa" }, "status": "public-development-diagnostic-not-independent-benchmark", "expected_cases": 4, "results": [ { "id": "supplier-minimum-order", "passed": true, "elapsed_ms": 19339, "used_tools": [ "business" ], "toolDiagnostics": [ { "tool": "business", "status": "ok" } ], "response": { "kind": "answer", "message": "Verdict: Supplier Alder fits your USD 300 budget; Supplier Birch does not, because its 50-unit minimum pushes the order over budget.\n\n- Alder at its 20-unit minimum: 20 × $8 = $160 + $40 freight = $200 total, about $10.00 landed per unit. That leaves $100 headroom; you could go up to 32 units ($256 + $40 = $296) if you want more stock.\n- Birch at its 50-unit minimum: 50 × $6 = $300 + $30 freight = $330 total, about $6.60 landed per unit. Cheaper per unit, but $30 over budget and 2.5× the stock you need for a first test.\n\nRecommendation: treat Alder as the fit for a first, reversible order of 20–32 units. Birch only becomes viable if you can raise the budget to at least $330 or negotiate a lower minimum. Before committing, check what the bottle sells for so you can confirm gross margin at a $10 landed cost—if you give me the intended selling price, outbound shipping and payment fees, I can calculate margin and break-even ad cost for each supplier.", "uncertainties": [ "Both quotes are pasted text, not verified offers or confirmed stock; totals assume the stated per-unit price, minimum, and freight are accurate and truly all-inclusive.", "No selling price, outbound shipping, or payment fees were provided, so gross margin and profitability at either landed cost are unknown." ], "run_id": "cad0b1c5-4450-48cf-8c6a-651e30d1abdd", "engine": "commerce-reasoning-v1", "evidence": [ { "id": "e1", "source": "business", "status": "ok", "observed_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z" } ] } }, { "id": "supplier-deadline", "passed": true, "elapsed_ms": 12577, "used_tools": [ "business" ], "toolDiagnostics": [ { "tool": "business", "status": "ok" } ], "response": { "kind": "answer", "message": "Only Birch's quote meets all three constraints on paper: 20 units, USD 260 (within your USD 300 budget), quoted delivery in 7 days (inside your 10-day deadline). Alder is cheaper (USD 200, USD 60 less) but its quoted 18 days misses your deadline by 8 days, so it fails the binding constraint regardless of price.\n\nTrade-off: choosing Birch costs USD 60 more (USD 13.00 vs USD 10.00 per unit) and leaves USD 40 of budget headroom. Both are unverified written quotes, not guaranteed delivery, so before committing, get Birch to confirm in writing the ship date, carrier/tracking, and that \"all-inclusive\" covers duties and delivery to your address. If Birch can't confirm a dated commitment, Alder does not become a fallback for this deadline; you'd need a third option.\n\nNo message has been sent and nothing has been ordered.", "uncertainties": [ "Both delivery times and prices are unverified supplier quotes; actual delivery may differ.", "Whether 'all-inclusive' covers duties, taxes and final-mile delivery is not confirmed." ], "run_id": "d522037b-fedc-4f06-8d15-801ec9463596", "engine": "commerce-reasoning-v1", "evidence": [ { "id": "e1", "source": "business", "status": "ok", "observed_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z" } ] } }, { "id": "supplier-missing-landed", "passed": true, "elapsed_ms": 13293, "used_tools": [ "business" ], "toolDiagnostics": [ { "tool": "business", "status": "ok" } ], "response": { "kind": "answer", "message": "No. USD 4 is the factory-gate (ex-works) unit price, not your landed cost. Landed cost means the unit price plus everything it takes to get the goods to you or your fulfillment point: inbound freight, insurance, import duties/tariffs, customs brokerage and any handling. Until those are quoted, your landed cost is unknown, not USD 4, and any margin promise built on it is built on a number that can only get worse.\n\nWhat's still missing before you can call a first order profitable for your Insulated bottle:\n- Inbound freight per unit (depends on shipping mode, order quantity, and carton weight/volume, which bottles tend to make expensive).\n- Duties and import taxes for your destination market, plus brokerage fees.\n- Outbound shipping cost per order, payment processing fees, and a refund/return reserve, all of which come after landed cost.\n- A verified selling price and normal market price for this bottle.\n\nPractical next step: ask the supplier for a quote that includes freight to your destination (or a DDP price) for your intended quantity, and get a duty rate for the product's tariff classification. Once you have landed cost and a selling price, I can run exact gross margin, contribution and break-even figures for you. As a sourcing target, landed cost should be at most about 35% of a verified normal market price while you sell at around 70% of it, which yields roughly 50% gross margin before the additional costs above. Nothing has been ordered or recorded.", "uncertainties": [ "Inbound freight, duties, outbound shipping, payment fees, returns and selling price are all unknown, so no margin or profitability figure can be calculated yet." ], "run_id": "9eecfde0-0301-44bf-9dc1-da34eec881e7", "engine": "commerce-reasoning-v1", "evidence": [ { "id": "e1", "source": "business", "status": "ok", "observed_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z" } ] } }, { "id": "supplier-expired-quote", "passed": true, "elapsed_ms": 16729, "used_tools": [ "business" ], "toolDiagnostics": [ { "tool": "business", "status": "ok" } ], "response": { "kind": "answer", "message": "No. A quote valid through August 31, 2026 expired five days ago, so neither the USD 200 for 20 units (USD 10/unit) nor the 7-day delivery window is a current commitment. Treat them as historical reference points only — useful for estimating, not for pricing, promising delivery dates, or funding ads. Your insulated bottle build is ready, but its sourcing basis is currently unverified.\n\nWhat should happen next (nothing has been contacted or ordered):\n- Get a fresh written quote confirming unit price, MOQ, lead time, validity date, and whether the USD 200 included inbound freight/duties. Until then, mark the price and delivery time as \"unconfirmed\" in your planning.\n- When the new quote arrives, compare it with the old one. If price or lead time moved, I can rerun the margin, break-even CPA/ROAS and sourcing-target calculations with the new landed cost and your intended selling price.\n- Hold any spend decisions (ads, inventory prepayment) until the quote is re-confirmed; an expired quote is not a basis for paid traffic.\n\nIf you tell me the intended selling price and outbound shipping, I can calculate what unit cost you can afford at a 50% gross margin so you know what to accept in the re-quote.", "uncertainties": [ "Quote details come from your message only; the supplier connection here does not provide a verified quote or stock, so current price and lead time are unknown until re-confirmed.", "Whether the USD 200 included inbound freight and duties is not stated, so the landed cost per unit is unknown." ], "run_id": "b711ee6e-5634-4e56-8fff-0f2053157b0e", "engine": "commerce-reasoning-v1", "evidence": [ { "id": "e1", "source": "business", "status": "ok", "observed_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z" } ] } } ] }