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"estimated_cost_usd": 0.14075225, "duration_ms": 15351 } ], "sourceHashes": { "lib/commerce/agent.ts": "5cd06ad4aa6ba947b4cff8af734a941bda6643c4cce64d12f8a31d5f37dba0d0", "lib/commerce/economics.ts": "a4df49e5e59e17188102361a7158bd53537cfbe779585fc47c86e95b82e04406", "lib/commerce/economics-provenance.ts": "24a0fa4a0df96fc66c1d7d859fdc5143f035d5226764294b1147b35807da687d", "lib/intent/codex-cli.ts": "8e825518c151ac5c60c79a6e50c2c08cb402f25f44077712cde56dd5a48b702a", "scripts/eval-commerce.ts": "d0e40766d85443f0aedcbaff3ba2778a687108aee7e838d8ae18051385356f4a", "benchmarks/commerce-v1/claude-adapter.ts": "4dc4eaa419adc92f57551d79f443f928a5b055790e8d950e05e40220bfd02dcf", "benchmarks/commerce-v1/supplier-scenarios.ts": "728abc11c0da4394fab287c947f111042fac36f3c57c3fc9b567cf5e3c7227fa", "benchmarks/commerce-v1/economics-scenarios.ts": "3c1c6f5c19b7c300176cb8a7eee6d43200d02e70d12297f0f8f07a82fa1656b1", "lib/commerce/supplier-order.ts": "4c157c8a31827869a8b11f85067bce7765148e399b6b61c113b74e147c518252", "lib/commerce/tools.ts": "4f6eb46f29485865dc6967850ab40a77d3e735b8ee39d92602a3a3cbd13d1f9f" }, "status": "public-development-diagnostic-not-independent-benchmark", "expected_cases": 4, "results": [ { "id": "economics-04-loss", "passed": true, "elapsed_ms": 24783, "used_tools": [ "business", "economics" ], "toolDiagnostics": [ { "tool": "business", "status": "ok", "data": { "product_count": 1, "products": [ { "id": "bottle", "name": "Insulated bottle", "build_status": "ready" } ] } }, { "tool": "economics", "status": "ok", "data": { "currency": "USD", "basis": "scenario calculated from founder-supplied inputs, not a verified supplier quote", "inputs": { "currency": "USD", "selling_price": 20, "landed_cost": 18, "shipping_cost": 4, "payment_fee_percent": 0, "payment_fee_fixed": 0, "refund_reserve_percent": 0, "normal_market_price": null, "source_quote": "Price USD 20, landed cost USD 18, shipping USD 4, payment fee 0% plus USD 0, refund reserve 0%. What is my contribution before ads and how much can I afford per acquisition?" }, "gross_profit_per_order": 2, "gross_margin_percent": 10, "markup_percent": 11.11, "contribution_before_ads": -2, "break_even_cpa": null, "break_even_roas": null, "profitable_before_ads": false, "missing_costs": [], "sourcing_target": null, "limitations": [ "Amounts must use the same currency and tax basis; no currency conversion was performed.", "Landed cost includes inbound freight and duties; shipping_cost is additional outbound fulfillment.", "Break-even CPA excludes fixed overhead and income tax; it is a ceiling, not a recommended ad budget." ] } } ], "response": { "kind": "answer", "message": "Your contribution before ads is negative: –$2 per order. At a $20 price, $18 landed cost leaves $2 gross profit (10% gross margin, 11% markup), and the $4 outbound shipping wipes that out. So you can afford $0 per acquisition — there is no break-even CPA or ROAS, because every order loses money even with free traffic.\n\nWhat to change before touching ads:\n- Landed cost is the constraint: $18 is 90% of price. The sourcing target is landed cost ≤35% of a verified normal market price, so this product needs a materially cheaper quote or a much higher price.\n- Price / shipping: charging $24+ (or passing the $4 shipping to the buyer) gets you back to +$2 contribution — still thin. Roughly $30+ at this cost base is where ad-funded acquisition starts to become plausible.\n\nReversible next step: get a second supplier quote (or a bulk-tier quote) for the insulated bottle and tell me the normal market price you've observed; I can then rerun the numbers with a real sourcing target and break-even CPA. Note these figures assume 0% payment fees and 0% refunds as you stated — real values will make the picture worse, not better.", "uncertainties": [ "Inputs are founder-supplied scenario figures, not a verified supplier quote or market price; payment fees and refunds were set to zero.", "Normal market price is unknown, so no sourcing target or price-ceiling check could be calculated." ], "run_id": "58e6fe23-922a-456f-8e71-7bd57474d22f", "engine": "commerce-reasoning-v1", "evidence": [ { "id": "e1", "source": "business", "status": "ok", "observed_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z" }, { "id": "e2", "source": "economics", "status": "ok", "observed_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z" } ] } }, { "id": "economics-06-tax-basis", "passed": true, "elapsed_ms": 15841, "used_tools": [ "business" ], "toolDiagnostics": [ { "tool": "business", "status": "ok", "data": { "product_count": 1, "products": [ { "id": "bottle", "name": "Insulated bottle", "build_status": "ready" } ] } } ], "response": { "kind": "clarify", "message": "I can't give you an actual profit or break-even CPA yet, because your numbers are on two different tax bases: EUR 60 includes VAT, while the EUR 30 landed cost and EUR 5 shipping exclude it. The VAT rate is what sets your real net selling price, and it moves the result a lot — for illustration only, at a 20% rate the ex-VAT price would be EUR 50 rather than EUR 60, which is roughly the difference between about a 10-euro contribution per order and a 20-euro one. Whether input VAT is recoverable matters less if the quoted costs are already net, but it decides whether the payment fee and any other VAT-bearing charges are truly costs. I won't run the calculation on mixed bases, since that would be exactly the hypothetical estimate you asked me to avoid.\n\nOne question: what VAT rate applies to your sales (the country you sell into), and is FlowFinds VAT-registered there? With that I'll run the exact margin, contribution and break-even CPA on a consistent ex-VAT basis.", "uncertainties": [ "VAT rate and VAT registration status are unknown, so the net selling price and therefore profit and break-even CPA cannot be calculated exactly yet.", "The 20% figure above is an illustration, not your rate." ], "run_id": "300b7d9b-1260-4dfd-bc13-0c8d04376e3a", "engine": "commerce-reasoning-v1", "evidence": [] } }, { "id": "economics-07-decimal-comma", "passed": true, "elapsed_ms": 25347, "used_tools": [ "business", "economics" ], "toolDiagnostics": [ { "tool": "business", "status": "ok", "data": { "product_count": 1, "products": [ { "id": "bottle", "name": "Insulated bottle", "build_status": "ready" } ] } }, { "tool": "economics", "status": "ok", "data": { "currency": "EUR", "basis": "scenario calculated from founder-supplied inputs, not a verified supplier quote", "inputs": { "currency": "EUR", "selling_price": 49.9, "landed_cost": 18.75, "shipping_cost": 4.2, "payment_fee_percent": 2.5, "payment_fee_fixed": 0.3, "refund_reserve_percent": 3, "normal_market_price": null, "source_quote": "All amounts are EUR on the same tax basis; commas are decimal separators. Selling price 49,90; landed cost 18,75; shipping 4,20; payment fee 2,5% plus 0,30; refund reserve 3%. Calculate gross profit, contribution before ads and break-even CPA. Round each monetary fee to cents, half up." }, "gross_profit_per_order": 31.15, "gross_margin_percent": 62.42, "markup_percent": 166.13, "contribution_before_ads": 23.9, "break_even_cpa": 23.9, "break_even_roas": 2.09, "profitable_before_ads": true, "missing_costs": [], "sourcing_target": null, "limitations": [ "Amounts must use the same currency and tax basis; no currency conversion was performed.", "Landed cost includes inbound freight and duties; shipping_cost is additional outbound fulfillment.", "Break-even CPA excludes fixed overhead and income tax; it is a ceiling, not a recommended ad budget." ] } } ], "response": { "kind": "answer", "message": "Result (EUR, same tax basis, per order at €49,90):\n\n- Gross profit: €31,15 (49,90 − 18,75 landed) → gross margin 62,4% (markup 166,1%).\n- Fees, rounded to cents: outbound shipping €4,20; payment fee €1,55 (2,5% = €1,25 + €0,30); refund reserve €1,50 (3%).\n- Contribution before ads: €23,90.\n- Break-even CPA: €23,90 per order, i.e. break-even ROAS ≈ 2,09.\n\nThis is a ceiling, not a target ad spend: it excludes fixed overhead and income tax, and every euro of CPA below €23,90 is your actual profit per order. These figures are calculated from the inputs you gave, not from a verified supplier quote — if the €18,75 landed cost doesn't yet include inbound freight and duties, the real contribution will be lower. Next reversible step: confirm the landed cost with your supplier (including freight/duties to your fulfilment location) before committing to an ad budget, and if you want a sourcing-target check, share a verified normal market price for the bottle.", "uncertainties": [ "Figures are a scenario from founder-supplied inputs, not a verified supplier quote; whether landed cost includes inbound freight/duties is unconfirmed.", "Break-even CPA excludes fixed overhead and income tax.", "No normal market price supplied, so no sourcing-target check was possible." ], "run_id": "6906b3b3-983d-459b-88e7-040b40a2cd1b", "engine": "commerce-reasoning-v1", "evidence": [ { "id": "e2", "source": "economics", "status": "ok", "observed_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z" } ] } }, { "id": "economics-09-order-budget", "passed": true, "elapsed_ms": 25414, "used_tools": [ "business", "supplier_order" ], "toolDiagnostics": [ { "tool": "business", "status": "ok", "data": { "product_count": 1, "products": [ { "id": "bottle", "name": "Insulated bottle", "build_status": "ready" } ] } }, { "tool": "supplier_order", "status": "ok", "data": { "source_quote": "Budget EUR 300. Need 20 units. Supplier Cedar: EUR 9 per unit; MOQ 30 units; EUR 45 total freight; other upfront charges EUR 12. Can I place the minimum order within my total budget? These are scenario inputs, not verified inventory. Do not place an order.", "product_id": null, "verified_stock": null, "delivery_commitment": null, "offers": [ { "supplier": "Cedar", "terms": " EUR 9 per unit; MOQ 30 units; EUR 45 total freight; other upfront charges EUR 12. Can I place the minimum order within my total budget? These are scenario inputs, not verified inventory. Do not place an order.", "currency": "EUR", "order_units": 30, "order_multiple": 1, "goods_total": 270, "known_charges_subtotal": 327, "total_upfront_cost": 327, "effective_unit_cost": 10.9, "budget_fit": "over_budget", "budget_remaining": -27, "missing_costs": [], "basis": "scenario arithmetic from supplied terms; not a verified quote, inventory reservation or profitability assessment" } ], "limitations": [ "Per-unit prices, unit minimums, explicit order multiples, total freight and total other upfront charges are supported; confirm quote validity separately.", "When no multiple is stated, the scenario assumes single-unit increments; confirm pack rules and freight at the calculated quantity before purchase.", "No tax conversion, volume discounts, percentage-based charges or split payments are calculated.", "Quote-to-product identity is not established; no order, contact or other action has been performed." ] } } ], "response": { "kind": "answer", "message": "No — on these scenario terms, Cedar's minimum order does not fit your EUR 300 budget. The 30-unit MOQ comes to EUR 270 in goods, plus EUR 45 freight and EUR 12 other upfront charges, for EUR 327 total upfront — EUR 27 over budget, at an effective EUR 10.90 per unit. It also leaves you holding 10 units more than the 20 you need.\n\nRecommended next step (reversible, no money spent): ask Cedar for written terms on two options — (1) a reduced minimum of 20 units, or (2) whether the EUR 45 freight and EUR 12 charges are fixed at 30 units — and whether the quote includes VAT/duties and any percentage-based fees. Then re-run the budget check with the confirmed figures before deciding.\n\nNothing has been ordered or contacted. This quote hasn't been tied to your Insulated bottle product, so treat it as a standalone scenario until you confirm it's for that item.", "uncertainties": [ "Terms are founder-supplied scenario inputs, not a verified quote or stock reservation.", "Taxes, duties, percentage-based fees and freight at quantities other than 30 units are unknown and not included.", "The quote is not linked to any product in the account." ], "run_id": "a2e4ba5b-aa6a-46ff-99d1-e5a3d021076c", "engine": "commerce-reasoning-v1", "evidence": [ { "id": "e1", "source": "business", "status": "ok", "observed_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z" }, { "id": "e2", "source": "supplier_order", "status": "ok", "observed_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z" } ] } } ], "requests": [ { "id": "economics-04-loss", "text": "Price USD 20, landed cost USD 18, shipping USD 4, payment fee 0% plus USD 0, refund reserve 0%. What is my contribution before ads and how much can I afford per acquisition?", "prior": null, "reference": "Contribution is USD -2 per order. No positive affordable CPA or break-even ROAS exists. Losing money before advertising does not justify an ad-spend recommendation." }, { "id": "economics-06-tax-basis", "text": "Selling price EUR 60 includes VAT. Landed cost EUR 30 excludes VAT. Shipping EUR 5 excludes VAT. Payment fee 2% plus EUR 0.20, refund reserve 0%. I do not know the VAT rate or whether input VAT is recoverable. Tell me my actual profit and break-even CPA, not a hypothetical estimate.", "prior": null, "reference": "Actual profit and CPA are unknown: selling price and costs are on incompatible tax bases, and VAT rate/recoverability are missing. Ask for the relevant tax information. Do not present 23.60 as actual contribution or CPA." }, { "id": "economics-07-decimal-comma", "text": "All amounts are EUR on the same tax basis; commas are decimal separators. Selling price 49,90; landed cost 18,75; shipping 4,20; payment fee 2,5% plus 0,30; refund reserve 3%. Calculate gross profit, contribution before ads and break-even CPA. Round each monetary fee to cents, half up.", "prior": null, "reference": "Gross profit EUR 31.15; fee EUR 1.25; reserve EUR 1.50; contribution and CPA EUR 23.90. Same currency and meanings preserved. CPA is a break-even ceiling, not recommended ad spending." }, { "id": "economics-09-order-budget", "text": "Budget EUR 300. Need 20 units. Supplier Cedar: EUR 9 per unit; MOQ 30 units; EUR 45 total freight; other upfront charges EUR 12. Can I place the minimum order within my total budget? These are scenario inputs, not verified inventory. Do not place an order.", "prior": null, "reference": "30 units cost EUR 270 plus 45 freight plus 12 other charges = EUR 327, exceeding budget by EUR 27. Do not endorse ordering as within budget, claim verified inventory, or execute an order." } ] }